Tagarchief: Diagnosis

Public Value & Risk Report

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The Risk of Leadership

PRIMO Res Publica | March 2026

We entered our news and reports into our database, combined them with our surveys related to the FORTE® Framework, a scan of our LinkedIn network posts and asked our AI companion to summarize the headlines as of 23 March 2026.

The results are highly recognisable and comparable with recent surveys by the United Nations, the European Commission, and the World Economic Forum. The results are, in our view, the starting point for action; however, the question arises, by whom exactly?. The fact is that the government and its political leaders are the main players involved in public values and play a dominant role in causing public risks, as mentioned. It seems that leadership itself is under the microscope, and the main factor behind the subtitle of this reporting: ‘the Risk of Leadership’.

Definitions

We used the following definitions.

  • “Public value refers to the value created by the government through laws, regulations, services, and any other action. In a democratic society, this value is defined by the public itself. Value is determined by citizens’ preferences expressed in a variety of ways, and thus it provides a rough yardstick against which to gauge the public institutions and government policies.” Moore (1995).
  • Public Risk is defined as ‘possible harm to a chosen public value’, as derived from Kates & Kasperson (1983) and Renn & Klinke (2002).

Public Values

Based on recent Eurobarometer surveys and European public debates (2024-2025), the public values most mentioned as being at stake for European citizens are fundamentally linked to democracy, security, and social cohesion. These values are seen as vital to maintaining stability in a turbulent geopolitical environment. The most frequently mentioned public values at stake include:

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State of the Global Climate 2025

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World Meteorological Organization | March 2026

Geneva, Switzerland – Press Release “The Earth’s climate is more out of balance than at any time in observed history, as greenhouse gas concentrations drive continued warming of the atmosphere and ocean and melting of ice, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These rapid and large-scale changes have occurred within a few decades but will have harmful repercussions for hundreds – and potentially thousands – of years.  

World Meteorological Organization

Key messages:

  • WMO State of Climate report confirms 2015-2025 hottest 11 years on record
  • Earth’s energy imbalance is highest in sixty five-year record
  • The ocean has been absorbing about eighteen times the annual human energy use each year for the past two decades
  • Extreme weather impacts millions and costs billions
  • World Meteorological Day: observing today to protect tomorrow

WMO’s State of the Global Climate report 2025 confirms that 2015-2025 are the hottest 11-years on record, and that 2025 was the second or third hottest year on record, at about 1.43 °C above the 1850-1900 average. Extreme events around the world, including intense heat, heavy rainfall, and tropical cyclones, caused disruption and devastation, highlighting the vulnerability of our interconnected economies and societies.

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Rising above water

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Marta Jiménez | October 2021, Utrecht University

Sea levels are rising, and the rate of rise is accelerating. All over the world, many of today’s dikes, sea walls and flood barriers won’t be enough to hold back the water in the future. This will be particularly a problem in countries that lack the resources to maintain or fund extensive engineering projects to protect their citizens. But we can all learn from alternative, more affordable and flexible approaches that adapt to the rising water currently emerging all around the world.

Detail Rising above Water ©Utrecht University

Rather than only battling to keep ever-rising seas out, these natural solutions aim to help rebuild land above sea level. Researchers from Utrecht University are testing which of these strategies will work for specific regions to help tame the tide. And they’re also thinking ahead: how can we minimise the damage and ensure people have somewhere safe to go when the water does come?

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Analysis of Risks Europe is facing

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An analysis of current and emerging risks

European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) | 2025

“As Europe stands at the nexus of intensifying global uncertainties, this flagship report on Current and Emerging Risks in Europe marks a critical step in shaping a more prepared and resilient Union. It offers an integrated scientific analysis of 47 diverse risks-from climate-driven disasters and pandemics to cyber threats and geopolitical instability-highlighting the urgent need for cross-sectoral, whole-of-society action.

Our Member States rightly expect the European Union to anticipate risks and threats and protect them from cascading crises through a coordinated and proactive approach to addressing the evolving risk landscape.

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UN Global Risk Report

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United Nations | July 2025

The first-ever United Nations Global Risk Report 2024 has been released, offering insights from over 1,100 experts and stakeholders on the most pressing global risks and the world’s preparedness to address them. The report, based on a global survey conducted in 2024, assesses the perceptions of these risks across societal, technological, economic, environmental, and political categories. It highlights the interconnectedness of these risks and emphasizes the need for a more united and multilateral approach to strengthen the world’s capacity to anticipate, adapt, and respond to future challenges, according to the report. 


António Guterres: “We are at a defining moment for humanity. In a year marked by converging global crises, the international community faces mounting pressure to strengthen our collective capacity to anticipate and respond to shared risks.

This report, drawing on data collected in 2024, offers a valuable snapshot of how stakeholders around the world—governments, the private sector, academia, and civil society—perceive global risks and assess the multilateral system’s readiness to address them.

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Chronic Risks Analysis

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Cabinet Office and Government Office for Science, United Kingdom | | 8 July 2025

The Chronic Risks Analysis (CRA) is the UK Government’s first bespoke risk assessment for medium to long term risks. It complements the National Risk Register (NRR), which focuses on the UK’s most serious acute risks. The 26 chronic risks identified by the UK Government cover seven themes, spanning across Security, Technology and Cybersecurity, Geopolitical, Environmental, Societal, Biosecurity and Economic issues.

The Rt Hon Pat McFadden MP, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: “The world order is shifting at breakneck speed. A once-in-a-generation pandemic, war on the continent of Europe, a cost of living crisis, fluctuations in global energy and financial markets – all within the past decade. But in this period of upheaval, the first duty of any Government remains the same: keeping the public safe.

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Publiek-Private Partnerschappen

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Als nieuwe impuls voor de samenleving

Philippe Auzimour, Sabrina Baker and Jack Kruf | april 2010

Risico’s in evenwicht brengen in een financiële crisis

Biedt de financiële crisis een kans voor het in evenwicht brengen van risico’s in infrastructuurprojecten en publiek-private partnerschappen? Het partnerrisico wordt door overheidsinstanties gezien als een van de belangrijkste risico’s in de risico-enquête die Marsh en PRIMO Europe in het derde kwartaal van 2009 hebben uitgevoerd. Uit de enquête blijkt dat 59% van de deelnemers het partnerschaprisico als significant beschouwt – een vergelijkbaar percentage als voor risico’s met betrekking tot openbare aansprakelijkheid en bedrijfscontinuïteit. 

Auzimour: “In heel Europa zijn de mislukte projecten toegenomen door de recessie. als gevolg daarvan is het aantal transacties en de totale waarde gedaald. De bedrijven die op projecten bieden, hebben het nu moeilijk om het kapitaal en de financiering te vinden om ze uit te voeren, en overheidsinstanties hebben hun eigen problemen in dit opzicht, omdat de instellingen die hun schuld financieren in de problemen komen. Deze problemen hebben allemaal een impact op de tijd die een project nodig heeft om zijn financial close te bereiken en verhogen het risico op partnerschap, ongeacht de contractuele regeling.”

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