Deborah J. Mitchell, J. Edward Russo, Nancy Pennington | March 1989
Prospective hindsight involves generating an explanation for a future event as if it had already happened; i.e., one goes forward in time, and then looks back. This research found that “imagining that an event has already occurred, increases the ability to correctly identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%” (Klein, 2007)
In order to examine how shifts in perspective might influence people’s perceptions of events, we investigated two possible factors: temporal perspective (whether an event is set in the future or past) and uncertainty (whether the event’s occurrence is certain or uncertain).
This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgments under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available.
These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and the biases they lead to could improve judgments and decisions in situations of uncertainty.
The Kyoto Protocol was adopted on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. Owing to a complex ratification process, it currently has 192 Parties. The treaty follows the main principles agreed upon in the 1992 convention.
It operationalizes the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by committing industrialized countries and economies in transition to limit and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in accordance with agreed-upon individual targets. The Convention itself only asks those countries to adopt mitigation policies and measures and report periodically.
Never has good policy been so important. The challenges we face are complex and global, from unemployment and a lack of affordable housing to regulating cryptocurrencies and protecting against cybersecurity threats. The text explains how policymaking works, using examples from around the world, from the emergence of policy ideas to deciding between cutting-edge solutions, from evaluating policies to improving policymaking practices.
Open up the black box of government to see where policies are made. This introductory text takes you beyond theory and into the messy world of policymaking, offering a toolkit for making better policy. Drawing from insights earned through years of interactions with policymakers and extensive teaching experience, Boin and Lodge offer a comprehensive introduction to the inner workings of government and how to produce policies that address societal problems of today and tomorrow.
Today, the framework has near-universal membership. The 198 countries ratified the Convention are called Parties to the Convention. The ultimate aim of the UNFCCC is to prevent “dangerous” human interference with the climate system.
The Convention recognized that there was a problem. The UNFCCC borrowed an essential line from one of the most successful multilateral environmental treaties in history (the Montreal Protocol, in 1987): it bound member states to act in the interests of human safety despite scientific uncertainty.
A short history of what we live by. A panoramic history of rules in the Western worldEen korte geschiedenis van wat ons leven bepaalt. • Een overzicht van de geschiedenis van regels in de westerse wereld
Rules order almost every aspect of our lives. They set our work hours, dictate how we drive and set the table, tell us whether to offer an extended hand or cheek in greeting, and organise life’s rites, from birth through death. We may chafe under the rules we have and yearn for ones we don’t, yet no culture could do without them. •Regels bepalen bijna elk aspect van ons leven. Ze bepalen onze werktijden, dicteren hoe we rijden en de tafel dekken, vertellen ons of we een uitgestoken hand of wang moeten geven ter begroeting en organiseren de rituelen van het leven, van geboorte tot dood. We kunnen ons ergeren aan de regels die we hebben en verlangen naar de regels die we niet hebben, maar toch zou geen enkele cultuur zonder deze regels kunnen.
In Rules, historian Lorraine Daston traces rules’ development in the Western tradition and shows how they have evolved from ancient to modern times. Drawing on a rich trove of examples, including legal treatises, cookbooks, military manuals, traffic regulations, and game handbooks, Daston demonstrates that while rules’ content is dazzlingly diverse, their forms are surprisingly few and long-lived. •In ‘Regels’ traceert historica Lorraine Daston de ontwikkeling van regels in de westerse traditie en laat ze zien hoe ze van de oudheid tot de moderne tijd zijn geëvolueerd. Aan de hand van een rijke schat aan voorbeelden, waaronder juridische verhandelingen, kookboeken, militaire handleidingen, verkeersregels en spelhandboeken, laat Daston zien dat terwijl de inhoud van regels duizelingwekkend divers is, hun vormen een verrassend beperkt scala hebben en langlevend zijn.
Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C as early as 2030, with current climate action falling short of meeting the Paris Agreement goals and a mounting risk of tipping beyond the ability of human societies to adapt.
Building on broader OECD work on climate, this report proposes a new OECD territorial climate indicator framework. It demonstrates that different territories have different potential to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, adapt to climate impacts, and address vulnerabilities.
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