Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy

Andrew Healy, Loyola Marymount University, and Neil Malhotra, Stanford University | 2009

In our democratic system, citizens vote for their representative politicians, elected councils, public leaders, governors, and governing councils. But what about citizens’ perceptions of how risks are handled by their leaders, and what about citizens’ appreciation of proactive thinking by councillors related to public risks when it comes to voting?

Quote: “Do voters effectively hold elected officials accountable for policy decisions? Using data on natural disasters, government spending, and election returns, we show that voters reward the incumbent presidential party for delivering disaster relief spending, not investing in disaster preparedness spending. These inconsistencies distort the incentives of public officials, leading the government to underinvest in disaster preparedness, thereby causing substantial public welfare losses.”

“We estimate that $1 spent on preparedness is worth about $15 in terms of the future damage it mitigates.”

“By estimating both the determinants of policy decisions and the consequences of those policies, we provide more complete evidence about citizen competence and government accountability.”

Bibliography

Healy, A. and Malhotra, N. (2009) Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy. American Political Science Review: Vol. 103, No. 3 August

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Thinking in Systems

Donella Meadows, Diana Wright (ed.) | 2008

In the years following her role as the lead author of the International bestseller Limits to Growth – the first book to show the consequences of unchecked growth on a finite planet – Donella Meadows remained a pioneer of environmental and social analysis until her untimely death in 2001.

"So, what is a system? A system is a set of things—people, cells, molecules, or whatever—interconnected in such a way that they produce their own pattern of behavior over time. The system may be buffeted, constricted, triggered, or driven by outside forces. But the system’s response to these forces is characteristic of itself, and that response is seldom simple in the real world."

- Donella Meadows (2008)

Thinking in Systems is a concise and crucial book offering insight into problem-solving from personal to global scales. Edited by the Sustainability Institutes Diana Wright, this essential primer brings systems thinking out of the realm of computers and equations and into the tangible world, showing readers how to develop the systems-thinking skills that thought leaders across the globe consider critical for 21st-century life.

Some of the biggest problems facing the world, including war, hunger, poverty, and environmental degradation, are system failures. They cannot be solved by fixing one piece in isolation from the others because even seemingly minor details have enormous power to undermine the best efforts of too-narrow thinking. While readers will learn the conceptual tools and systems thinking methods, the book’s heart is grander than the methodology.

"Managers are not confronted with problems that are independent of each other, but with dynamic situations that consist of complex systems of changing problems that interact with each other. I call such situations messes. . . . Managers do not solve problems, they manage messes."

- Russel L. Ackoff (1979)

Donella Meadows was known as much for nurturing positive outcomes as she was for delving into the science behind global dilemmas. She reminds readers to pay attention to what is important, not just what is quantifiable, to stay humble, and to stay a learner. In a world growing ever more complicated, crowded, and interdependent, Thinking in Systems helps readers avoid confusion and helplessness, the first step toward finding proactive and effective solutions.

Bibliography

Ackoff, R. (1979) ‘The Future of Operational Research Is Past’. Journal of the Operational Research Society 30, no. 2: 93–104.

Meadows, D. (Wright, D. ed) (2008) Thinking in Systems. Vermont, US: Chelsea Green Publishing Co.

Future Global Shocks

Improving Risk Governance

European Parliament | 2022

This report addresses risks and building capabilities for Europe in a contested world. The coronavirus crisis has demonstrated that the European Union faces various risks, that those disparate risks are interlinked, and that the response to such challenges to the Union is stronger with the Union and its Member States acting together.

Russia’s war on Ukraine, launched while this study was being drafted, shows us more than just the added value of the Union’s concerted action and the ability of EU institutions and Member States to find new and effective solutions to deal with major shocks.

Risks and policy responses linked

This paper, the first in an annual series, seeks to assess the risks to, and capabilities and resilience of, the EU system. Building on a review of global risks, it considers specific risks with the potential to harm Europe and its people in detail.

It then sets out options for policy responses to ensure Europe can address the dangers of such risks and minimise the potential damage. Among the options set out are those previously included in European Parliament resolutions, in positions from other EU institutions, and in policy papers from think tanks and stakeholders.

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COSO

Committee of Sponsoring Organizations (COSO) | 1985

This Internal Control—Integrated Framework was developed by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations (COSO) of the Treadway Commission.

The American Accounting Organization (AAA), American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA), Financial Executives International (FEI), Institute of Internal Auditors (IIA), and Institute of Management Accountants (IMA) Organizations seeking to scale find that this framework offered an approach to enterprise risk management (ERM) sensitive to variability from one organization to the next.

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Multi-level governance

Jack Kruf | december 2022

Meerlagig bestuur vormt een essentieel onderdeel van het navigeren door de publieke sector. Net als in de natuur zijn er invloeden die op en neer gaan tussen de lagen van het ecosysteem. Als stadsmanager en gemeentesecretaris heb ik bijvoorbeeld het komen en gaan ervaren van nationale beleidsplannen, regels en wetgeving naar beneden toe, en financiële en politieke invloeden naar boven toe, evenals de samenwerking tussen verschillende bestuurslagen bij complexe projecten of programma’s. Maar wat is meerlagig bestuur precies? Waar komt de term vandaan? Hoe wordt deze gebruikt? Een korte studie.

Het is een benadering in de politicologie en de theorie van het openbaar bestuur die voortkomt uit studies over Europese integratie. Volgens Piattoni (2001) ontwikkelden politicologen Liesbet Hooghe en Gary Marks het concept van multi-level governance in het begin van de jaren negentig.

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Seizing the day

PriceWaterhouseCoopers | 2010

The impact of the global financial crisis on cities and local public services: the ‘Great Recession’ has had a dramatic impact on the financial services sector and other areas of the private sector and highlighted the importance of the role of government at international and national levels in addressing global and systemic risks.

But what has been the global financial crisis’s impact on cities and local governments’ roles and brands? How have their budgets (both costs and revenues) been affected? And how confident are local government leaders in their ability to deal with future threats and, most importantly, effectively and swiftly respond to these challenges?

This report addresses these issues based on the findings of an international survey of city and local government leaders, which sought to gauge their reactions and understand their responses to the global financial crisis. It is clear from their reactions that local government leaders have already seen a significant impact on their organisations and brands and a collapse in revenues.

Tough times, hard choices

Tough times are driving innovation, collaboration, and service design and rationalisation. There are winners and losers—local government leaders, particularly in developed countries, who are facing the need to transform in the face of an impending crisis. In contrast, others, particularly in developing countries, have the opportunity to learn the lessons and leapfrog to new models of service delivery, particularly focusing on early intervention and prevention and making more use of commissioning.

Now is a time to get back to basics and focus on those functions where cities and local governments can add the most value and retain the talent critical to these core functions. Greater collaboration between public sector agencies, private and voluntary/not-for-profit organisations, and spatially across geographies is also needed.

Our goals in publishing this report are to outline the challenges and opportunities facing local government leaders following the onset of the global financial crisis and to set out our views on the future for cities and local governments and successful ways for local government leaders to act. The research builds on the insights from PwC’s Global Cities and Local Government Network’s publication ‘Cities of the Future’ and subsequent toolkit, drawing on our experiences working with cities and local governments worldwide.

We appreciate the time the local government leaders took to respond to our survey. This report focuses on the 58 responses we received for the global survey to provide a geographically balanced spread. The results are also split by Developed countries (33 responses) and Developing countries (25 responses), in cities comprising a total population of over 120 million people. We have also commissioned country-specific reports for Brazil, The Netherlands and Sweden, covering an additional 215 cities. The details of our sample and methodology for this global report are in the Appendix.

This report would not have been possible without the active participation of all the contributing cities and local authorities. We would like to thank all respondents for their contributions and whose views form the basis for this report.

Download: Seizing the daytekst

(Global) Resilient Cities Network

Global Resilient Cities Network | 2019

The 100 Resilient Cities network continues its goals under the provisional name Global Resilient Cities Network (GRCN). The year 2019 has been a year of significant change.

At the Urban Resilience Summit in Rotterdam, 100 cities worldwide came together under the name 100 Resilient Cities (100RC). Rotterdam, as one of the 100 Resilient Cities, acted as the host city because of its exemplary role as a resilient city.

From medio 2019, the 100RC network will continue under the provisional name (Global) Resilient Cities Network (GRCN). GRCN is leading the global conversation on building resilient cities, or in other words, making cities resilient and future-proof, to accelerate climate action and social and economic resilience, among other things.

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