Auteursarchief: Jack P. Kruf

Global Risks Report 2006

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World Economic Forum | 2006

Towards a more sophisticated understanding of global risks, this document summarises the output of a collaboration between the World Economic Forum, MMC (Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.), Merrill Lynch and Swiss Re, in association with the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, on the topic of Global Risks. The purpose of this collaboration, building on work undertaken in 2004, was to:

  • Identify and assess current and emerging global risks in the 2006 and 2015 time horizons.
  • Study the links between them and assess their likely effect on different markets and industries.
  • Advance the thinking around more effective mitigation of global risks.
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Global Risks to the Business Environment

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World Economic Forum | 2005

Global Risks to the Business Environment: “This paper, the output of two workshops organised by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with Merrill Lynch, reviews major, global risks facing business leaders today, and examines how those risks differ from the challenges of the past. Some key points:

1) Global Risks and Business

At a time when risks not specific to business are having an unprecedented effect on the corporate world, it is crucial for business leaders to understand the environment in which their business operates, in order to survive, remain competitive and grasp opportunities.

2) An Increasingly Turbulent and Complex World

Today’s risks are much more interconnected than in the past. They are much more volatile and can disrupt markets throughout the world with almost instantaneous precision. Such risks can be difficult to anticipate and respond to, even for the most seasoned business leaders.

3) The Global Risks

We identify 36 “global” risks, classified into four categories: economic, geopolitical, societal and environmental. This report details the prevailing consensus reached at our workshop discussions as to the ten risks most likely to have a major or extreme impact on business:
• Instability in Iraq
• Terrorism
• Emerging fiscal crises
• Disruption in oil supplies
• Radical Islam
• Sudden decline in China’s growth
• Pandemics – infectious diseases
• Climate change
• Weapons of mass destruction (WMD)
• Unrestrained migration and related tensions

4) Risk Mapping – Connecting the “Dots” and Spotting the Patterns

In an interconnected world, global risks should not be considered on a stand-alone basis; it is important to understand how they can trigger, amplify or buffer one another.

5) Dealing with Global Risks

Seldom can global risks be addressed by a single business entity, industry or country, and many institutional mechanisms are proving fairly ineffectual as they struggle to cope with the challenge. There is also a large discrepancy between the immediate time horizon employed by most business and political leaders and the long-term approach required to tackle risks on a global scale. As a result, our capacity to address risk is jeopardized; a myopic tendency – or worse, denial – prevails. Finally, of equal concern is the problem that some major risks are being passed on to those least able to solve them – or with least responsibility for creating them.”

Global Risks to the Business Environment

Rising above water

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Marta Jiménez | Utrecht University

Sea levels are rising, and the rate of rise is accelerating. All over the world, many of today’s dikes, sea walls and flood barriers won’t be enough to hold back the water in the future. This will be particularly a problem in countries that lack the resources to maintain or fund extensive engineering projects to protect their citizens. But we can all learn from alternative, more affordable and flexible approaches that adapt to the rising water currently emerging all around the world.

Rather than only battling to keep ever-rising seas out, these natural solutions aim to help rebuild land above sea level. Researchers from Utrecht University are testing which of these strategies will work for specific regions to help tame the tide. And they’re also thinking ahead: how can we minimise the damage and ensure people have somewhere safe to go when the water does come?

Ransomware: An insurance market perspective

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Source: Geneva Association

  • New Geneva Association report highlights the important role of private re/insurers, alongside governments, in boosting society’s resilience to ransomware and ensuring the full benefits of digitalisation can be realised.
  • The report explores the significant value add of cyber insurance beyond risk transfer, amid ongoing debate on whether to ban ransom payments or associated insurance coverage.
  • Governments should do more to counter ransomware attacks: disrupt cybercriminal business models, fight illicit use of cryptocurrencies and promote cyber hygiene throughout business and society.

ZURICH, 20 July 2022 – The frequency of ransomware attacks, a form of cyber extortion, is increasing, along with the size and nature of ransom demands. Cybercriminals are deploying more sophisticated approaches to target governments, businesses and individuals, with serious and costly effects. The growth of the ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) business model has also enabled threat actors with limited technical skills to launch highly disruptive attacks.

Cyber insurance provides vital financial protection and operational support in the event of an attack, but ransomware has contributed to the recent deterioration in cyber insurers’ underwriting performance. Ransomware accounted for 75% of all cyber insurance claims in 2020 (AM Best) and is also likely to have been the costliest loss event category in 2021 (WTW).

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Public-Private Sector Risk Management: is there a difference?

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Peter Young | February 2007

Are there differences between risk management in the public and private sectors? As a professor who has spent time in both public administration and business administration programs, I have had several opportunities to think about both sides of the debate. 

Professor Peter Young

On one side, we have those who argue that management is management and that differences in the public and private sectors are modest (“if only government were run like a business”). Opponents of the “management is management” point of view argue that the public sector is so different from the private sector that it is a distinctly separate thing and, thus, requires different knowledge and management skills.

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The Risk of Leadership

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A plea for a new search for ‘responsible-in-the-end’ leadership: stewardship

Jack Kruf | 10 March 2017

Of course, we have our democratic system, a great set of principles and values that serve as equipment for good public governance. Public leadership, concerning both public organisations and the public domain of society, is embedded in this system, at least it should be. You may expect excellent results because the democratic system traces back to the Greek δημοκρατία in 508 BC and has been tested and challenged over and over again. Over the millennia, it has developed to this point.

Jack Kruf

Considering the present state of society and of natural ecosystems, you may be surprised by the results of this period of 2525 years of development. The Global Risks Reports, published by the World Economic Forum since 2005, tell the story of how critical the state of the Earth is. Reading these reports, I had a flashback to 1972, when the Club of Rome presented facts, findings, and figures in its report, The Limits to Growth. For at least five decades (i.e., half a century!), we know what is going on and where many generations of leadership have brought us.

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Risicoperceptie van gemeentesecretarissen

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Bert van de Velden, Leo ’t Hart en Franc Weerwind* | 2004, VGS en Marsh

Anticiperend op het per 1 januari 2004 in te voeren Besluit Begroting en Verantwoording provincies en gemeenten (BBV) is medio 2003, bij een aantal gemeentesecretarissen het idee ontstaan om aandacht te geven aan het onderwerp risicomanagement. Dit idee is vervolgens uitgewerkt en besproken met het bestuur van de VGS. Hierbij is afgesproken om binnen het kader van risicomanagement onderzoek te doen naar de risicoperceptie van gemeentesecretarissen.

Bij publieke besluitvorming spelen veel aspecten een rol. Visie, nut en noodzaak, uitvoerbaarheid, (financiële) haalbaarheid en handhaafbaarheid zijn voorbeelden van die aspecten. Risicomanagement is een ander perspectief dat bij deze besluitvorming een rol kan spelen.

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