Public Value & Risk Report

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The Risk of Leadership

PRIMO Res Publica | March 2026

We entered our news and reports into our database, combined them with our surveys related to the FORTE® Framework, a scan of our LinkedIn network posts and asked our AI companion to summarize the headlines as of 23 March 2026.

The results are highly recognisable and comparable with recent surveys by the United Nations, the European Commission, and the World Economic Forum. The results are, in our view, the starting point for action; however, the question arises, by whom exactly?. The fact is that the government and its political leaders are the main players involved in public values and play a dominant role in causing public risks, as mentioned. It seems that leadership itself is under the microscope, and the main factor behind the subtitle of this reporting: ‘the Risk of Leadership’.

Definitions

We used the following definitions.

  • “Public value refers to the value created by the government through laws, regulations, services, and any other action. In a democratic society, this value is defined by the public itself. Value is determined by citizens’ preferences expressed in a variety of ways, and thus it provides a rough yardstick against which to gauge the public institutions and government policies.” Moore (1995).
  • Public Risk is defined as ‘possible harm to a chosen public value’, as derived from Kates & Kasperson (1983) and Renn & Klinke (2002).

Public Values

Based on recent Eurobarometer surveys and European public debates (2024-2025), the public values most mentioned as being at stake for European citizens are fundamentally linked to democracy, security, and social cohesion. These values are seen as vital to maintaining stability in a turbulent geopolitical environment. The most frequently mentioned public values at stake include:

  • Peace and stability: as of early 2025, peace is the number one value European citizens want the European Parliament to defend, reflecting deep concerns about the war in Ukraine and regional insecurity.
  • Democracy and democratic values: democracy is consistently ranked among the top core values at stake, encompassing trust in political institutions and the right of citizens to have a say in governance.
  • Respect for fundamental rights and values: this includes freedom of speech and expression, human rights, and the protection of minorities.
  • The rule of law: an independent judiciary and legal equality (82% support) are considered essential, particularly as challenges to democratic backsliding occur within some member states.
  • Solidarity and equality: social cohesion, fairness in living standards, and access to quality healthcare are key concerns, with most of the citizens viewing a “social Europe” as important.
  • Freedom of movement is highly valued as a tangible benefit of EU integration.

The public values are largely threatened by major trends and developments:

  • Lack of proper governance: There is distrust of a highly ineffective, or even dysfunctional, government at all levels. Governments are highly influenced by short-term-focused political focus in a constantly changing landscape. Many citizens are dissatisfied with their governments. Protests and strong left or right forces enter the political arena.
  • The war in Ukraine by Russia and related security threats have led to the fact that EU citizens are highly concerned about security. Russia is on the offensive, permanently.
  • Wars by Israel and the United States dominate the news regarding Gaza and Iran. In the headlines show the facts that these countries are on the path of massive bombing. killing and violation of human rights.
  • Radical, right-leaning, and unpredictable behaviour of the United States, marked by daily changes in partnerships with allies, suppression of its own media and citizen groups, and their MAGA-support of right-wing groups in Europe.
  • The cost of living and economic Insecurity are concerning many citizens; high inflation is a top issue in many regions.
  • Environmental concerns and climate change are everywhere in the news. It is a top area for the EU to address.

Key takeaways for public values:

  • Values vs. threats: while freedom, democracy, and equality are prized, they are seen as under threat from both internal and external factors.
  • Unity requirement: most of citizens believe EU member states need to be more united to face these global threats.
  • Younger perspective: young Europeans particularly emphasize freedom of movement, equality, and the environment, with a great concern for mental health and affordable housing.

Public Risks

Based on recent Eurobarometer surveys and expert risk assessments for 2025-2026, European citizens are primarily concerned with a mix of immediate economic pressures and long-term geopolitical and environmental threats. The top public risks at stake are:

  • Cost of living and economic instability: inflation, rising prices, and the cost of living remain the top priority for European citizens. This includes anxiety about household finances, housing costs, and a general fear of a declining standard of living.
  • Defense and security risks: following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, security is a major concern, with many citizens feeling the conflict directly threatens European safety. Key risks include Russia’s ongoing aggression, the potential for a ceasefire that favours Russia, and a potential reduction in US security guarantees (abandonment).
  • Irregular and illegal migration and border management: migration is frequently cited as a major challenge, particularly regarding its impact on social cohesion and the pressure it places on public services.
  • Climate change, environmental collapse, and disasters: climate-related risks, including extreme heat, wildfires, and floods, are ranked highly, particularly among younger Europeans and in terms of long-term sustainability.
  • Hybrid and cyber threats: a significant majority of Europeans are concerned about cyberattacks, data protection, and disinformation, particularly the risk of disruptive strikes on critical infrastructure such as power grids and transport systems.

Key societal trends:

  • Demographic pressure: aging populations are straining public finances and services.
  • Digital disinformation: misinformation, hate speech, and Al-generated misleading content are major concerns affecting democracy and societal trust.
  • Demand for action: a strong majority of citizens support a more unified, stronger European Union to tackle these threats, rather than relying on individual state actions.

Bibliography

Kates, R. W., & Kasperson, J. X. (1983). Comparative risk analysis of technological hazards (a review). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 80(22), 7027-7038.https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.80.22.7027

Moore, M. (1995) Creating Public Value: Strategic management in government. Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States: Harvard University Press.

Renn, O. en Klinke; A. ( 2002). Een nieuwe benadering van risico-evaluatie en -beheer: Risk Based, Precaution Based and Discourse-Based Management. Risicoanalyse, Vol. 22, Nr. 6 (December), 1071-1994.