Back to the Future

Temporal perspective in the explanation of events

Deborah J. Mitchell, J. Edward Russo, Nancy Pennington | March 1989

Prospective hindsight involves generating an explanation for a future event as if it had already happened; i.e., one goes forward in time, and then looks back. This research found that “imagining that an event has already occurred, increases the ability to correctly identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%”  (Klein, 2007)

In order to examine how shifts in perspective might influence people’s perceptions of events, we investigated two possible factors: temporal perspective (whether an event is set in the future or past) and uncertainty (whether the event’s occurrence is certain or uncertain).

In the first experiment, temporal perspective showed little influence while outcome uncertainty strongly affected the nature of explanations for events. Explanations for sure events tended to be longer, to contain a higher proportion of episodic reasons, and to be expressed in past tense.

Evidence from the second experiment supports the view that uncertainty mediates not the amount of time spent explaining, but rather subjects’ choice of explanation type.

The implications of these findings for the use of temporal perspective in decision aiding are discussed.

Bibliography

Klein, G. (2007) Performing a Project Premortem. Harvard Business Review, September issue

Mitchell, D., Russo, J., & Pennington, N. (1989) Back to the Future: Temporal perspective in the explanation of events. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 2, 25-38 https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.3960020103

Download publication