Global Risks Report 2006

World Economic Forum | 2006

Towards a more sophisticated understanding of global risks, this document summarises the output of a collaboration between the World Economic Forum, MMC (Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.), Merrill Lynch and Swiss Re, in association with the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, on the topic of Global Risks. The purpose of this collaboration, building on work undertaken in 2004, was to:

    • Identify and assess current and emerging global risks in the 2006 and 2015 time horizons.
    • Study the links between them and assess their likely effect on different markets and industries.
    • Advance the thinking around more effective mitigation of global risks.

Lees verder “Global Risks Report 2006”

Global Risks to the Business Environment

World Economic Forum | 2005

Global Risks to the Business Environment: “This paper, the output of two workshops organised by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with Merrill Lynch, reviews major, global risks facing business leaders today, and examines how those risks differ from the challenges of the past. Some key points:

1) Global Risks and Business

At a time when risks not specific to business are having an unprecedented effect on the corporate world, it is crucial for business leaders to understand the environment in which their business operates, in order to survive, remain competitive and grasp opportunities.

2) An Increasingly Turbulent and Complex World

Today’s risks are much more interconnected than in the past. They are much more volatile and can disrupt markets throughout the world with almost instantaneous precision. Such risks can be difficult to anticipate and respond to, even for the most seasoned business leaders.

3) The Global Risks

We identify 36 “global” risks, classified into four categories: economic, geopolitical, societal and environmental. This report details the prevailing consensus reached at our workshop discussions as to the ten risks most likely to have a major or extreme impact on business:
• Instability in Iraq
• Terrorism
• Emerging fiscal crises
• Disruption in oil supplies
• Radical Islam
• Sudden decline in China’s growth
• Pandemics – infectious diseases
• Climate change
• Weapons of mass destruction (WMD)
• Unrestrained migration and related tensions

4) Risk Mapping – Connecting the “Dots” and Spotting the Patterns

In an interconnected world, global risks should not be considered on a stand-alone basis; it is important to understand how they can trigger, amplify or buffer one another.

5) Dealing with Global Risks

Seldom can global risks be addressed by a single business entity, industry or country, and many institutional mechanisms are proving fairly ineffectual as they struggle to cope with the challenge. There is also a large discrepancy between the immediate time horizon employed by most business and political leaders and the long-term approach required to tackle risks on a global scale. As a result, our capacity to address risk is jeopardized; a myopic tendency – or worse, denial – prevails. Finally, of equal concern is the problem that some major risks are being passed on to those least able to solve them – or with least responsibility for creating them.”

Global Risks to the Business Environment

Global Risks Report 2013

World Economic Forum

The report analyses 50 global risks in terms of impact, likelihood and interconnections, based on a survey of over 1000 experts from industry, government and academia.

This year’s findings show that the world is more at risk as persistent economic weakness saps our ability to tackle environmental challenges. The report highlights wealth gaps (severe income disparity) followed by unsustainable government debt (chronic fiscal imbalances) as the top two most prevalent global risks. Following a year scarred by extreme weather, from Hurricane Sandy to flooding in China, respondents rated rising greenhouse gas emissions as the third most likely global risk overall.

The findings of the survey fed into an analysis of three major risk cases: Testing Economic and Environmental Resilience, Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World and The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health. In a special report on national resilience, the groundwork is laid for a new country resilience rating, which would allow leaders to benchmark their progress. The report also highlights “X Factors” – emerging concerns which warrant more research, including the rogue deployment of geoengineering and brain-altering technologies.

Read online

WEFvGlobal Risks Report 2013

Rising above water

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Marta Jiménez | Utrecht University

Sea levels are rising, and the rate of rise is accelerating. All over the world, many of today’s dikes, sea walls and flood barriers won’t be enough to hold back the water in the future. This will be particularly a problem in countries that lack the resources to maintain or fund extensive engineering projects to protect their citizens. But we can all learn from alternative, more affordable and flexible approaches that adapt to the rising water currently emerging all around the world. Rather than only battling to keep ever-rising seas out, these natural solutions aim to help rebuild land above sea level. Researchers from Utrecht University are testing which of these strategies will work for specific regions to help tame the tide. And they’re also thinking ahead: how can we minimise the damage and ensure people have somewhere safe to go when the water does come?

Ransomware: An insurance market perspective

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Source: Geneva Association

  • New Geneva Association report highlights the important role of private re/insurers, alongside governments, in boosting society’s resilience to ransomware and ensuring the full benefits of digitalisation can be realised.
  • The report explores the significant value add of cyber insurance beyond risk transfer, amid ongoing debate on whether to ban ransom payments or associated insurance coverage.
  • Governments should do more to counter ransomware attacks: disrupt cybercriminal business models, fight illicit use of cryptocurrencies and promote cyber hygiene throughout business and society.

ZURICH, 20 July 2022 – The frequency of ransomware attacks, a form of cyber extortion, is increasing, along with the size and nature of ransom demands. Cybercriminals are deploying more sophisticated approaches to target governments, businesses and individuals, with serious and costly effects. The growth of the ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) business model has also enabled threat actors with limited technical skills to launch highly disruptive attacks.

Cyber insurance provides vital financial protection and operational support in the event of an attack, but ransomware has contributed to the recent deterioration in cyber insurers’ underwriting performance. Ransomware accounted for 75% of all cyber insurance claims in 2020 (AM Best) and is also likely to have been the costliest loss event category in 2021 (WTW).

The Geneva Association’s report analyses the complex policy issues surrounding ransomware and possible solutions to counter this epidemic in cybercrime, including the contribution of insurance to boosting firms’ cyber resilience. The report’s key messages include the following:

  • Cyber insurance does more than provide cover for ransoms: Cyber insurance may also cover a range of first- and third-party losses incurred by victims of ransomware (e.g. business interruption, data and system recovery, forensics and legal assistance), as well as arrange expert support in managing incidents. Insurance also helps organisations identify and address cybersecurity vulnerabilities and adopt better risk prevention in a fast-changing landscape.
  • Banning ransom payments would be a blunt, potentially ineffective policy instrument: An outright ban on the payment of ransoms or their reimbursement by re/insurers could backfire by driving transactions underground and encouraging ransomware attackers to engage in new, more malicious forms of extortion.
  • Governments and regulators must do more to counter ransomware attacks: Public policies should be aimed at deterring ransomware attacks, disrupting cybercriminals’ business models and illicit use of cryptocurrencies, and better preparing organisations for intrusion.

Managing Director of The Geneva Association, Jad Ariss, said: “With ransomware we see an example of the important ‘prevention and mitigation’ role insurers play as risk managers. They control a critical lever with their ability to incentivise customers to maintain strong cybersecurity controls and standards, helping to reduce firms’ vulnerability to attack and boost their cyber resilience. Governments and regulators have their levers, too, and as our report highlights, they need to rein in the illegal use of cryptocurrencies and do more to ensure information exchange about incidents as well as improve international cooperation among law enforcement.”

The Geneva Association’s Director of Cyber and Evolving Liability and author of the report, Darren Pain, said: “The ransomware landscape is now highly evolved and sophisticated, especially with the development of ransomware-as-a-service. Such ransomware attacks are driving significant increases in insurance claims and, as a consequence, premiums. Would banning ransom payments be a viable solution? According to our study, insurance companies do not think so. Prohibiting ransom payments or their reimbursement by insurers would likely drive transactions underground, forfeiting the ability of the authorities to record and analyse incidents and prosecute criminals. Furthermore, the last thing we should do is take steps that might discourage smaller firms from taking out cyber insurance, the benefits of which go well beyond reimbursing ransoms.”

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nl• De frequentie van ransomware-aanvallen, een vorm van cyberafpersing, neemt toe, samen met de omvang en aard van de losgeldeisen. Cybercriminelen zetten meer gesofisticeerde benaderingen in om overheden, bedrijven en individuen te treffen, met ernstige en kostbare gevolgen. De groei van het ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS)-bedrijfsmodel heeft bedreigers met beperkte technische vaardigheden ook in staat gesteld zeer ontwrichtende aanvallen uit te voeren, zo blijkt een repport van de Geneva Association.

Cyberverzekeringen bieden essentiële financiële bescherming en operationele ondersteuning in het geval van een aanval, maar ransomware heeft bijgedragen tot de recente verslechtering van de acceptatieprestaties van cyberverzekeraars. Ransomware was in 2020 goed voor 75% van alle cyberverzekeringsclaims (AM Best) en zal in 2021 waarschijnlijk ook de duurste verliescategorie zijn geweest (WTW). Overheden moeten meer doen om ransomware-aanvallen tegen te gaan: verstoor bedrijfsmodellen van cybercriminelen, bestrijd illegaal gebruik van cryptocurrencies en bevorder cyberhygiëne in het hele bedrijfsleven en de hele samenleving.

Het rapport van de Geneva Association analyseert de complexe beleidskwesties rond ransomware en mogelijke oplossingen om deze epidemie van cybercriminaliteit tegen te gaan, waaronder de bijdrage van verzekeringen aan het vergroten van de cyberweerbaarheid van bedrijven. Het rapport benadrukt de belangrijke rol van private herverzekeraars, naast overheden, om de samenleving weerbaarder te maken tegen ransomware en ervoor te zorgen dat de voordelen van digitalisering ten volle kunnen worden benut. De belangrijkste boodschappen van het rapport zijn onder meer de volgende:

  • Cyberverzekeringen bieden meer dan alleen dekking voor losgeld: Cyberverzekeringen kunnen ook een reeks eerste- en derde-verliezen dekken die slachtoffers van ransomware oplopen (bijv. bedrijfsonderbreking, herstel van gegevens en systemen, forensisch onderzoek en juridische bijstand), evenals deskundige ondersteuning regelen bij het beheer van incidenten. Verzekeringen helpen organisaties ook kwetsbaarheden op het gebied van cyberbeveiliging te identificeren en aan te pakken en betere risicopreventie toe te passen in een snel veranderend landschap.
  • Het verbieden van losgeldbetalingen zou een bot en mogelijk ondoeltreffend beleidsinstrument zijn: Een algeheel verbod op de betaling van losgeld of de vergoeding ervan door herverzekeraars/verzekeraars kan averechts werken doordat transacties ondergronds worden gedreven en aanvallers van ransomware worden aangemoedigd om nieuwe, meer kwaadaardige vormen van afpersing toe te passen.
  • Regeringen en regelgevers moeten meer doen om ransomware-aanvallen tegen te gaan: Overheidsbeleid moet gericht zijn op het afschrikken van ransomware-aanvallen, het verstoren van de bedrijfsmodellen van cybercriminelen en het illegale gebruik van cryptocurrencies, en het beter voorbereiden van organisaties op inbraak.

Managing Director van The Geneva Association, Jad Ariss, zei: “Met ransomware zien we een voorbeeld van de belangrijke ‘preventie en mitigatie’-rol die verzekeraars spelen als risicomanagers. Zij hebben een cruciale hefboom in handen door hun vermogen om klanten te stimuleren sterke cyberbeveiligingscontroles en -normen te handhaven, waardoor zij bedrijven minder kwetsbaar maken voor aanvallen en hun cyberweerbaarheid vergroten. Overheden en regelgevende instanties hebben ook hun hefbomen, en zoals ons rapport benadrukt, moeten zij het illegale gebruik van cryptocurrencies beteugelen en meer doen om de uitwisseling van informatie over incidenten te waarborgen, evenals de internationale samenwerking tussen rechtshandhavingsinstanties verbeteren.”

Darren Pain, directeur Cyber and Evolving Liability van de Geneefse Vereniging en auteur van het rapport, zegt: “Het ransomware-landschap is nu sterk geëvolueerd en gesofisticeerd, vooral met de ontwikkeling van ransomware-as-a-service. Dergelijke ransomware-aanvallen zorgen voor een aanzienlijke stijging van het aantal verzekeringsclaims en, als gevolg daarvan, van de premies. Zou een verbod op losgeldbetalingen een levensvatbare oplossing zijn? Volgens onze studie denken verzekeringsmaatschappijen van niet. Het verbieden van losgeldbetalingen of de vergoeding ervan door verzekeraars zou de transacties waarschijnlijk ondergronds drijven, waardoor de autoriteiten de incidenten niet meer zouden kunnen registreren en analyseren en criminelen niet meer zouden kunnen vervolgen. Bovendien is het laatste wat we moeten doen het nemen van maatregelen die kleinere bedrijven kunnen ontmoedigen om cyberverzekeringen af te sluiten, waarvan de voordelen veel verder gaan dan het vergoeden van losgeld.”

 

About robust governance and temporal strategies

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Source: Wiley Public Administration

Abstract

Today the world is confronted with dual crises: creeping and acute threats unfolding at the same time — for example, the manifestation of extreme weather events such as drought and flooding and the creeping crisis of climate change. To cope with dual crises, this article develops a novel temporal perspective that offers policy actors a repertoire of interrelated strategies for enhancing the robustness of institutional efforts. The repertoire consists of five temporal strategies that policy actors can use to navigate the twin challenges of immediate and latent threats in conjunction: strategic coupling of short-term shocks and creeping crises, crafting time horizons, molding the pace of public problem-solving, mobilizing anticipatory capacity through futuring techniques, and adaptive iteration of policy decisions. We illustrate the practical application of these strategies in an exploratory case study of adaptive water management in the Netherlands.

Samenvatting

De wereld wordt geconfronteerd met duale crises: sluipende en acute dreigingen op hetzelfde moment, zoals extreme weersgebeurtenissen als droogte of watersnood tegelijkertijd met de sluipende crisis van klimaatverandering. Om te reageren op duale crises, ontwikkelt dit artikel een nieuw repertoire van vijf temporele strategieën voor beleidsmakers om de robuustheid van overheidssystemen te vergroten. Dit repertoire bestaat uit de volgende strategieën: strategische koppeling van onverwachte korte termijn schokken en sluipende crises, tijdshorizonnen creëren, het tempo aanpassen van implementatie, het mobiliseren van anticiperende capaciteit door middel van scenariotechnieken, en de adaptieve iteratie van beleidsbeslissingen. We illustreren de werking van deze vijf strategieën aan de hand van een uitgewerkt voorbeeld van adaptief watermanagement in Nederland: de invoering van het programma Ruimte voor de Rivier.

Cyber: Banning ransoms is a ‘blunt policy instrument’

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Strategic Risk | July 2022

A ban could encourage ransomware attackers to engage in new, more malicious forms of extortion, warns Geneva Convention.

The frequency of ransomware attacks, a form of cyber extortion, is increasing, along with the size and nature of ransom demands. Cybercriminals are deploying more sophisticated approaches to target governments, businesses and individuals, with serious and costly effects. Read more