The Risk of Leadership

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A plea for a new search for ‘responsible-in-the-end’ leadership: stewardship

Jack Kruf | 10 March 2017

Of course, we have our democratic system as a great set of principles and values as a form of equipment for good public governance. Public leadership, concerning that of public organisations as well as of the public domain of society, is embedded in this system, at least it should be. You may expect excellent results, because the democratic system traces back to the Greek δημοκρατία 508 BC, and itself is tested and challenged over and over again. Through the millennia it developed until now.

Considering the present state of society and of natural ecosystems you may be surprised by the results of this period of 2525 years of development. The Global Risks Reports published by the World Economic Forum – published since 2005 – tell the story of how critical the earth condition is. Reading these reports I had a flashback to the year 1972 when the Club of Rome presented facts, findings and figures in the report The Limits to Growth. Since at least five decades (i.e. half a century!) we know what is going on and where many generations of leadership has brought us.

Not that good

Within this democratic system the results of our public leadership over the years are not that good. Autocratic systems perform not better. More than ever public risks – being deviations, harms and losses related to the public values we so highly pamper – seem to emerge at a faster pace – such as there are disruptions caused by climate change and cybercrime, large scale pollution and poverty, fundamental lack of social cohesion, water shortage and migration issues. Well, what can we say about risk leadership while leadership itself seems to be the risk? We elaborate on this.

Redefinition

Public leadership must be reconsidered against the background of the structural and diminishing trust of citizens in politics as a whole as well as in public organisations. In society you more and more sense and hear Houston we have a problem. The general feeling is that public leaders do not listen to citizens and companies, are perceived as the ‘elite’, do not act in line with their promises during election time. What makes things worse is the disappearance of public leaders after a governing period of 4 – 6 year, when their term has come to an end, and make place for a new wave politicians, all with new promises.

It seems that risk leadership itself has become a risk

There seems to be much governance from the board room and from behind the desk. The living world of society seems to be separated from the ruling system world, where the leaders actually live in. There is this hugely felt need under citizens, clients, companies and if they could talk to us by natural ecosystems as forests and coral reefs – for leaders that listen to the wants and needs and from there truly generate values as safety, balance, cohesion, continuity, predictability, protection and security. There are gaps and risks (as form of harms and losses to values), all over the place.

From this perspective it is obvious that managing and governing the public risks, that emerge in society – well defined as risk leadership – needs to be redefined. It seems that leadership itself has become a risk factor. The so called risk leaders who cause risks in stead of leading us in the prevention, approach, mitigation and management. That is worrying, because the right course of public governance, anchored in the basic of democracy, depends on this. This aspect of weakness in leadership should at least lead to a continuing process of self-reflection, improved self-awareness and self-correction.

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St. Thomas University: “The Risk Leadership Initiative is focused on several aspects of modern risk management, but one of our key issues of concern is the challenge of getting organisational leaders to integrate risk management thinking into their overall decision-making frameworks. Since PRIMO has, from the beginning in 2005, been focused on top level leaders we would be interested to hear your views on the problems, opportunities, and challenges of getting risk management included in executive, politician, and director level policy making and policy implementation. Examples of successes would be particularly interesting to us. Jack Kruf: “It is clear that leaders of public and private organisations should play a coordinating and connecting role in a more holistic approach of the risks we are facing. This well written and illustrated report impressively highlights where we find the challenges on our path toward a more balanced society. Sharing knowledge, open dialogue, building trust, good governance, stewardship and leadership.””

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Political risk

In present think tanks has been brought forward by different stakeholders, the impressions that society itself is on a drift and that it seems that the democratic set of tools is running out of its ability to control. In the outcome and result of many elections and referenda it more and more becomes evident that the drift in risks, for society in public risks, finds ground in political leadership and hereto related components. Reflecting on risk leadership brings us automatically from the academic and management domain in the direction of politics.

Ludwig Oswald Wenckebach (1955) Monsieur Jacques [Bronze]. Rotterdam. The statue expresses ‘complacency’.
According Niccolò Machiavelli politics is the world of mainly that of power and influence. Is then politics one of the key drivers of public risk itself? Is the quest of risk leadership in fact all about the risk of politics or political risk? It is possible. Zooming in a bit more here. What is political risk? Matthee (2011) defines it as follows:

‘Political risk is a type of risk faced by investors, corporations, and governments that political decisions, events, or conditions will significantly affect the profitability of a business actor or the expected value of a given economic action.’ 

In a broader definition also citizens and communities should find resort in this definition. Anyway, politics is an obvious dimension that brings harm. An important aspect to build in the new program of Professor Peter Young. It leads in my view to the conclusion that risk leadership at least needs to embrace itself and for its practical applicability and use has to be upgraded, maybe even reconsidered, redefined, re-invented or re-engineered. In the public domain of day to day business and government, it means that this attitude of self reflection needs be applied to every elected and governing council, the place where politics actually emerge.

It has become clear from the European UDITE and PRIMO network that many city managers express the general feeling – from extensive experience with society, citizens, clients, investors, businesses, NGO’s and media – that this unpredictable working of politics has become a critical factor and express that the system of democracy itself is under pressure.

The unpredictable working of politics has become a critical factor

What is leadership if “democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” (Churchill). What is in perspective of the emerging public risks in fact the ability of democracy? Gore (2009) reflected as follows:

”It is now apparent that the climate crisis is posing an unprecedented threat… to our assumptions about the ability of democracy and capitalism to recognize this threat for what it is and respond…”.

These doubts in and lack of trust in de governing system, where leaders live, form the background for a further reflection on leadership, especially when it concerns risks for citizens, society and nature.

Stewardship

Discussing the major public risks within the European network of public leaders the main concept for leadership that addresses and mitigates is felt in the form of stewardship, not (only) in the religious way but as a form that has a true holistic approach. We remember here the great Alexander von Humboldt and his holistic approach over the borders of sciences in the early 19th century. He essentially connected sciences and approaches and with that crossed the lines of segmentation of opinions and views into a true ecological approach of areas and topics. Could his approach be a starting point for a more successful approach of public leadership, connecting vertically detail with headline, strategy with implementation and horizontally all relevant stakeholders. This way of perception could be beneficial and a great asset for modern leaders.

Alexander von Humboldt connected sciences… and with that crossed the lines of segmentation

Elaborate a little bit more on Von Humboldt. To be able seeing things as one and interconnected is the capacity of true ‘reflection’ needed, i.e. the capacity zooming out and seeing the larger picture, in connecting the dots. Like Alexander von Humboldt did in his 1858 masterwork (Cosmos part I). He for the first time in history connected the different sciences of the living and non-living world. He concluded: “Physical geography…, elevated to a higher point of view, … embraces the sphere of organic life…”. That was a great discovery and a major lesson to be able to connect the dots.

On governing cities and regions this reflection can be of great advantage in diagnosing the problem and define actions. Reflection is needed to get the bigger picture of things, people and happenings and to develop a sabbatical and clear view how to lead. It helps leaders getting the bigger picture, see more sharply the connection of elements within the public domain and thereby contribute to better decision making and putting things in perspective.

Change

From the network of PRIMO comes the experience that most of the public risks emerge from firstly lack of reflection capacity by leaders and with that insufficient diagnoses causes ineffective decisions. Only 12% of policies leads to implementation and from this only 25% is effective. Secondly lack of good working interfaces between stakeholders caused by a lack of binding leadership and thirdly by what can be defined as responsible-in-the-end leadership, i.e. stewardship. The last being an ethic that embodies the responsible planning and management of resources.

The concept of Risk Leadership can be possibly enriched with key leader capacities of reflection, connection and stewardship. In my view these can contribute to the reduction of risks, caused by leaders themselves and improve the quality of public and private governance and management in general. The initiative of Risk Leadership by the St. Thomas University could not have been timed better in this timeframe of changing paradigms, drifting societies and on a large scale emerging public risks. It is time for change.

Bibliography

Gore, A. (2009) Our Choice: Changing the way we think. Emmaus, US: Rodale Books.

Matthee, H. (2011) ‘Political risk analysis’ in Badie, B., Berg-Schlosser, D., & Morlino, L. (eds.), International encyclopedia of political science (pp. 2011-2014). Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications Inc. doi:10.4135/9781412959636.n457

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This article was originally published to contribute to the Risk Leadership Initiative of the Opus College of Business of the University of St. Thomas, lead by Professor Peter Young. As published here the article has been amended on its original in formulation and positioning. Hyperlinks and biography are added. The publishing date has been kept on its original: 10 March 2017.

© Jack Kruf photo: Ludwig Oswald Wenckebach (1955) Monsieur Jacques [Bronze]. Rotterdam. The statue expresses complacency.

Risicoperceptie van gemeentesecretarissen

Bert van de Velden, Leo ’t Hart en Franc Weerwind* | 2004, VGS en Marsh

Anticiperend op het per 1 januari 2004 in te voeren Besluit Begroting en Verantwoording provincies en gemeenten (BBV) is medio 2003, bij een aantal gemeentesecretarissen het idee ontstaan om aandacht te geven aan het onderwerp risicomanagement. Dit idee is vervolgens uitgewerkt en besproken met het bestuur van de VGS. Hierbij is afgesproken om binnen het kader van risicomanagement onderzoek te doen naar de risicoperceptie van gemeentesecretarissen.

Bij publieke besluitvorming spelen veel aspecten een rol. Visie, nut en noodzaak, uitvoerbaarheid, (financiële) haalbaarheid en handhaafbaarheid zijn voorbeelden van die aspecten. Risicomanagement is een ander perspectief dat bij deze besluitvorming een rol kan spelen.

Lees verder “Risicoperceptie van gemeentesecretarissen”

Examining Data Exfiltration

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The cyber threat landscape is continually evolving, and organizations are faced with the challenge of responding with tools and processes that may not have been initially designed with these threats in mind. Beazley (London Market) has invested a significant amount of effort and resource over the years that we have been writing cyber insurance into helping clients understand, and defend against, these evolving threats and now see an opportunity to share these insights with the wider community.

fr• Le paysage des cybermenaces est en constante évolution et les organisations doivent relever le défi de répondre avec des outils et des processus qui n’ont peut-être pas été conçus initialement en tenant compte de ces menaces. Beazley (France) investi une quantité importante d’efforts et de ressources au cours des années où nous avons souscrit une assurance cybernétique pour aider les clients à comprendre et à se défendre contre ces menaces en constante évolution et voyent maintenant une opportunité de partager ces connaissances avec la communauté au sens large. [Deeple]

nl• Het cyberdreigingslandschap evolueert voortdurend en organisaties worden geconfronteerd met de uitdaging om te reageren met tools en processen die initieel misschien niet ontworpen werden met deze dreigingen in het achterhoofd. Beazley heeft in de jaren dat zij cyberverzekeringen hebben afgesloten, veel tijd en middelen geïnvesteerd om klanten te helpen om deze veranderende bedreigingen te begrijpen en zich ertegen te verdedigen en zien nu een kans om deze inzichten met de bredere gemeenschap te delen.

In this Cyber Services Snapshots there is a look at the changing cyber threat landscape. One conclusion is that “just as the number of threat actors involved in a single incident is increasing, so are the risk exposures: It’s getting easier to deploy ransomware and malware, and that gives threat actors more access than ever before. Tools are cheap to rent and competition between ransomware providers has driven the cut that the tools’ authors are charging down from 40% of ransom to around 10-15%. In addition, some tools are being made publicly available and anyone with minimal coding skills can re-use them.”

fr• Dans ce Cyber Services Snapshots, nous examinons l’évolution du paysage des cyber-menaces. L’une des conclusions est que “le nombre d’acteurs de la menace impliqués dans un seul incident augmente, tout comme l’exposition aux risques”: Il est de plus en plus facile de déployer des ransomwares et des malwares, ce qui donne aux acteurs de la menace un accès plus large que jamais. Les outils ne sont pas chers à louer et la concurrence entre les fournisseurs de ransomwares a fait baisser la commission que les auteurs des outils demandent, qui est passée de 40 % de la rançon à environ 10-15 %. En outre, certains outils sont mis à la disposition du public et toute personne possédant des compétences minimales en codage peut les réutiliser.” [Deeple]

nl• In deze Cyber Services Snapshots wordt een blik geworpen op het veranderende cyberdreigingslandschap. Een van de conclusies is dat “net zoals het aantal dreigingsactoren dat bij een incident betrokken is, toeneemt, neemt ook de blootstelling aan risico’s toe. Het wordt eenvoudiger om ransomware en malware in te zetten, en dat geeft dreigings-actoren meer toegang dan ooit tevoren. Tools zijn goedkoop te huren en door de concurrentie tussen aanbieders van ransomware is de korting die de makers van de tools vragen gedaald van 40% van het losgeld tot ongeveer 10-15%. Bovendien worden sommige tools publiekelijk beschikbaar gemaakt en kan iedereen met minimale codeervaardigheden ze hergebruiken.”

Auditing Practices in Local Governments: An International Comparison

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Laurence Ferry and Pasquale Ruggiero | 2022, Esmerald Publishing Limited

Public spending accounts for a significant share of national GDP and is perceived as a critically important way for overcoming periods of economic and social crisis, but is often criticised as inefficient and ineffective, giving raise to calls for new processes of reform. Because most public resources are raised through taxation from citizens and businesses, accountability and assurance are key in the democratic process, and auditing attempts to fulfil this public interest role. This in turn leaves public sector auditing under increasing public scrutiny and political pressure.

Through a comparative analysis of the development of auditing practices in governments across the globe, Auditing Practices in Local Governments: An International Comparison provides a contemporary overview of public sector auditing practices at both local and state level. By focusing on countries which have experienced differing implementation processes, and which are characterised by different administrative and political cultures, the authors provide a comparative analysis of countries across the globe, including major European states, China, Australia, and New Zealand.

Written by scholars and practitioners in the fields of public sector auditing, this first volume of Emerald Studies in Public Service Accounting and Accountability provides readers both researchers and practitioners with a thorough overview of international public sector auditing practice. Read more

Handreiking Risicobeheersing voor Raadsleden

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VNG | 30 juni 2022

Raadsleden moeten lastige afwegingen maken over grote projecten. Wat is het risico voor de gemeente? Welke maatschappelijke meerwaarde levert het op? Om raadsleden op weg te helpen in risicobeheer, is er nu de Handreiking Risicobeheersing voor Raadsleden. De handreiking is een gezamenlijk product van VNG Risicobeheer, de Nederlandse Vereniging voor Raadsleden en het ministerie van BZK. Het idee is dat risicobeheer reële verwachtingen oplevert en erkende (on)zekerheden. Met als doel een gedeeld besef van hoe er kan worden (bij)gestuurd, ook als zaken anders lopen dan verwacht.

en • Council members have to make difficult decisions about major projects. What is the risk for the municipality? What is the social added value? To help councillors with their risk management, there is now a Risk Management Guide for Councillors. The guide is a joint product of VNG Risk Management, the Dutch Association for Councillors and the Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations. The idea is that risk management generates realistic expectations and acknowledged (un)certainties. The goal is a shared awareness of how to steer, even when things go differently than expected.

fr • Les membres du conseil doivent prendre des décisions difficiles sur des projets majeurs. Quel est le risque pour la municipalité ? Quelle est la valeur ajoutée sociale ? Pour aider les conseillers dans leur gestion des risques, il existe désormais un guide de gestion des risques pour les conseillers. Ce guide est le fruit d’une collaboration entre VNG Risk Management, l’association néerlandaise des conseillers municipaux et le ministère de l’Intérieur et des Relations au sein du Royaume. L’idée est que la gestion des risques génère des attentes réalistes et des (non-)certitudes reconnues. L’objectif est de parvenir à une prise de conscience commune de la manière de s’orienter, même lorsque les choses ne se déroulent pas comme prévu. [Deeple]

Grip op projecten / Grip on projects / Maîtriser les projets

De handreiking kan raadsleden helpen om op praktisch niveau beeld te brengen waar je op moet letten en of de gemaakte keuzes bijdragen aan maatschappelijke oplossingen. In projecten gaat het erom het financiële resultaat in beeld te krijgen, maar ook of de afweging van voor- en nadelen bijdraagt aan een betere samenleving,’ zegt directeur Henk Bouwmans van de Nederlandse Vereniging voor Raadsleden. 45% van alle raadsleden in de nieuwe periode is nieuw. ‘Ze moeten zich verdiepen in allerlei onderwerpen en worden overspoeld met informatie. Raadsleden steken gemiddeld 16 uur per week in het raadswerk. We zijn blij met deze handreiking omdat die helpt grip te krijgen op de risico’s van projecten en activiteiten.

en • The guide can help councillors to see at a practical level what they need to look out for and whether the choices made contribute to social solutions. In projects, it is about getting the financial result in view, but also about whether the weighing up of advantages and disadvantages contributes to a better society,’ says Henk Bouwmans, director of the Dutch Association of Councillors. 45% of all councillors in the new period are new. They have to immerse themselves in all kinds of subjects and are inundated with information. Council members put in an average of 16 hours a week into their council work. We are pleased with this guide because it helps them to get a grip on the risks of projects and activities.

fr • Le guide peut aider les conseillers à voir, à un niveau pratique, ce à quoi ils doivent faire attention et si les choix effectués contribuent à des solutions sociales. Dans les projets, il s’agit d’avoir en vue le résultat financier, mais aussi de savoir si la pesée des avantages et des inconvénients contribue à une meilleure société”, déclare Henk Bouwmans, directeur de l’association néerlandaise des conseillers. 45 % des conseillers municipaux sont nouveaux. Ils doivent se plonger dans toutes sortes de sujets et sont inondés d’informations. Les conseillers consacrent en moyenne 16 heures par semaine à leur travail au sein du conseil. Nous sommes satisfaits de ce guide car il les aide à appréhender les risques des projets et des activités. [Deeple]

Brede blik / broad perspective /grande perspective

Concern controller Tom Noordermeer van de gemeente Zevenaar werkte mee aan de handreiking namens het Risico Platform Overheden (RPO). Hij vindt het belangrijk dat de handreiking een brede kijk geeft op risicobeheersing. ‘Het gaat in de gemeenteraad vaak om het ratiogetal in de weerstandsparagraaf. Maar de vraag is: draagt die ratio bij aan een goed besluit of belemmert die dat juist?’ De weerstandsparagraaf is op zichzelf een goed instrument, maar het is aan actualisering toe, vind Noordermeer. ‘De focus moet niet eenzijdig financieel zijn, in gemeenten is het aspect van publieke waarde net zo belangrijk. Het ratiogetal suggereert een exactheid die er in feite niet is.’ De handreiking is een bijdrage aan een bredere kijk op risicobeheersing.

en • Corporate controller Tom Noordermeer of Zevenaar municipality contributed to the guide on behalf of the Risk Platform Governments (RPO). He believes it is important that the guide provides a broad perspective on risk management. The municipal council is often concerned with the ratio in the section on resistance. But the question is: does this ratio contribute to a good decision or does it in fact hinder one? The paragraph on resistance in itself is a good instrument, but it needs to be updated, Noordermeer thinks. The focus should not be exclusively on finance; the aspect of public value is just as important in municipalities. The ratio number suggests an exactness that is in fact not there. The guide is a contribution to a broader view of risk management.

fr • Le contrôleur d’entreprise Tom Noordermeer, de la municipalité de Zevenaar, a contribué à la rédaction du guide au nom de la Risk Platform Governments (RPO). Il estime qu’il est important que le guide offre une large perspective sur la gestion des risques. Le conseil municipal est souvent préoccupé par le ratio dans la section sur la résistance. Mais la question est de savoir si ce ratio contribue à une bonne décision ou s’il l’entrave au contraire. Le paragraphe sur la résistance est en soi un bon instrument, mais il doit être actualisé, estime M. Noordermeer. L’accent ne doit pas être mis exclusivement sur les finances ; l’aspect de la valeur publique est tout aussi important dans les municipalités. Le nombre de ratios suggère une exactitude qui n’existe pas en réalité. Le guide est une contribution à une vision plus large de la gestion des risques. [Deeple]

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Original language: Nederlands/Dutch

Risk assessment tool in social service provision

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The Myers-JDC-Brookdale Institute, Israel’s leading centre for applied social research and consulting, gained  knowledge thanks to the networking of European Social Network formulating recommendations for Israel Ministry of Welfare and Social Affairs. An example where science and practice meet to develop a risk-based service approach.

They developed an evidence-based tool to judge the level of risk of a service to a user by ranking the provider’s characteristics according to a risk ‘traffic light’. The characteristics of the social service provider, such as whether it is community based or residential, the characteristics of the user demographic, such as their level of vulnerability, and the quality of care within the framework, like the scope and deficiencies in the service are all factors which are all measured on the scale.

fr • Le Myers-JDC-Brookdale Institute, principal centre israélien de recherche sociale appliquée et de conseil, a acquis des connaissances grâce à la mise en réseau du European Social Network en formulant des recommandations pour le ministère israélien du bien-être et des affaires sociales. Un exemple où la science et la pratique se rencontrent pour développer une approche du service basée sur le risque.

Ils ont mis au point un outil fondé sur des données probantes pour évaluer le niveau de risque d’un service pour un utilisateur en classant les caractéristiques du prestataire selon un “feu tricolore” de risque. Les caractéristiques du prestataire de services sociaux, comme le fait qu’il s’agisse d’un service de proximité ou d’un service résidentiel, les caractéristiques démographiques de l’utilisateur, comme son niveau de vulnérabilité, et la qualité de la prise en charge dans le cadre, comme l’étendue et les lacunes du service, sont autant de facteurs qui sont tous mesurés sur l’échelle.

nl/vl • Het Myers-JDC-Brookdale Institute, Israëls toonaangevende centrum voor toegepast sociaal onderzoek en advies, heeft dankzij de netwerken van het European Social Network kennis opgedaan bij het formuleren van aanbevelingen voor het Israëlische ministerie van Welzijn en Sociale Zaken. Een voorbeeld waar wetenschap en praktijk elkaar ontmoeten om een op risico’s gebaseerde dienstenaanpak te ontwikkelen.

Zij ontwikkelden een evidence-based instrument om het risiconiveau van een dienst voor een gebruiker te beoordelen door de kenmerken van de dienstverlener te rangschikken volgens een risico-‘verkeerslicht’. De kenmerken van de verlener van de sociale dienst, zoals de vraag of deze in een gemeenschap of in een tehuis verblijft, de kenmerken van de demografische gebruikers, zoals hun mate van kwetsbaarheid, en de kwaliteit van de zorg binnen het kader, zoals de omvang en de tekortkomingen van de dienst, zijn allemaal factoren die op de schaal worden gemeten.

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Original language: English. Translation in French and Dutch by Deeple.

Proefschrift Waterveiligheid: managen van kwetsbaarheid voorbij de mythe van droge voeten

Met het proefschrift Waterveiligheid: het managen van kwetsbaarheid voorbij de mythe van droge voeten wordt een impressie gegeven rond de waterveiligheid in ons land. Vanuit de Nederlandse omgang met overstromingsdreiging in sociaal-cultureel perspectief. Het onderzoek van Kothuis en Heems verklaart waarom overstromingsdreiging ‘niet leeft’ in Nederland. Na problemen met de grote rivieren in 1993 en 1995 stuurden overheden aan op anders omgaan met water.

Met publieke communicatie over waterveiligheid en publieksparticipatie bij waterveiligheids- projecten willen zij het waterbewustzijn van burgers vergroten en risicobewust gedrag stimuleren. Onderzoek toont nu de onverwachte en ongewenste neveneffecten van dit beleid: verontwaardiging, apathie en verlies van publiek vertrouwen. Volgens Heems en Kothuis is de ‘veiligheidsmythe van droge voeten’ debet aan het falende overheidsbeleid: hoewel Nederlanders rationeel weten dat absolute garantie op veiligheid niet bestaat, is met de Deltawerken de overtuiging ontstaan dat overheden en experts droge voeten garanderen. Deconstructie van deze nationale mythe is noodzakelijk voor maatschappelijke verankering van een nieuwe omgang met waterveiligheid.

Het hele proefschrift is ook te downloaden via: https://bit.ly/3OlOcVE