Chronic Risks Analysis

Cabinet Office and Government Office for Science, United Kingdom | | 8 July 2025

The Chronic Risks Analysis (CRA) is the UK Government’s first bespoke risk assessment for medium to long term risks. It complements the National Risk Register (NRR), which focuses on the UK’s most serious acute risks. The 26 chronic risks identified by the UK Government cover seven themes, spanning across Security, Technology and Cybersecurity, Geopolitical, Environmental, Societal, Biosecurity and Economic issues.

The Rt Hon Pat McFadden MP, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: “The world order is shifting at breakneck speed. A once-in-a-generation pandemic, war on the continent of Europe, a cost of living crisis, fluctuations in global energy and financial markets – all within the past decade. But in this period of upheaval, the first duty of any Government remains the same: keeping the public safe.

No Government or business can afford to sit idly as the world changes around us. This Chronic Risks Analysis should act as a practical tool to help businesses, academia, Government and civil society to plan for the future. While the National Risk Register outlines the more immediate, acute risks confronting us all, this assessment details long-term challenges that pose a sustained threat to our way of life.

What this assessment makes clear, beyond any doubt, is that these challenges cannot be tackled alone. They are deeply interconnected. Many are underpinned by new technologies, global mobility or turbulence in international markets. It is not possible to mitigate the effects of climate change, or manage our collective reliance on global supply chains, by going it alone.

If the Government and industry can grasp opportunities to tackle these chronic risks and introduce robust contingencies, the benefits will be felt across society and our economy. Whether that’s growing our reputation for the safe and responsible use of AI, boosting growth in industries like cyber, or creating new skilled jobs in sectors from anti-fraud to biosecurity. Or acting decisively to thwart the spread of misinformation, ensuring we maintain strong supplies of critical minerals and shaping policies to prepare for demographic shifts, including an ageing population.

But our resilience also depends on strong foundations. Covid-19 was a once-in-a- generation pandemic, with devastating impacts on our national health and finances. But the impact was undoubtedly worsened by years of underinvestment in public services and a collective long term failure to address widespread inequality.

Through our Plan for Change we are rebuilding the country and changing the way the Government does things. And as we repair our NHS, open opportunities for people across the country and make our streets safer, we are making the UK more resilient to the shared risks that may be on the horizon.

This report will make an important contribution. By building our understanding of the long term risks we face, this report will not only help businesses and organisations to plan, it will strengthen national resilience. And, because we want to empower firms right across our economy to raise the bar on their resilience, the insights you will find in this document reflect the shared findings of Government and experts in a range of industries.

None of the risks are static; each one is evolving – every hour, every day. This assessment represents a snapshot in time, which is why we plan to publish a new analysis before the end of this Parliament.”